Laurel, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

635
FXUS64 KJAN 151944
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
244 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Tonight and Friday: Warmer than normal and dry through the period.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a ridge across our CWA from the
east and a low over the northern Plains with a trailing cold front
back across the central and southern Plains. The resulting pressure
gradient across our CWA was resulting in a gusty southwest to south
wind that will gradually subside this evening. This gusty south wind
has worked to increase low level moisture across our region and dew
points were running in the lower 70s. This increase in low level
moisture will help hold temperatures well above normal tonight. Mid
afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation
around a closed low spinning over the northern Plains. This low will
shift east through Friday and help drop the cold front into northern
Mississippi. The upper level ridging over our CWA today will have
shifted east leaving near zonal flow aloft. This will help the cold
front stall north of our CWA. There will be the potential for strong
to severe storms along and south of the cold front but, at this
time it appears any threat for severe weather in our north will hold
off until Friday night. /22/

Friday night through Wednesday night:

Quasi-zonal flow to prevail across the CWA through the weekend with
afternoon highs peaking into the upper 80s/lower 90s areawide. With
this quasi- zonal flow expected across the region, an unstable
airmass will begin to move into the region. This airmass, combined
with a couple of upper-level disturbances aloft and some northerly
moisture flow from the Tennessee Valley, will allow for rain/storm
chances across central/northern portions of our CWA around the
Friday night through Sunday evening/night timeframe. A few strong
storms with wind gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out. It is
possible that some of these storms could reach marginally severe
limits across northern portions of our forecast area including
portions of southeast Arkansas. The "Marginal" risk (1 out of 5) for
Friday night has been expanded slightly further south with the main
hazards being damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. In
addition, the "Slight" risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather that
was upgraded last forecast package has been expanded in our
northwest today. Damaging wind gust up to 60-70 mph and hail up
to golf ball size will be the main concerns for areas highlighted
in the Friday night through Wednesday night:

******No changes were made in the extended forecast*******

Quasi-zonal flow to prevail across the CWA through the weekend with
afternoon highs peaking into the upper 80s/lower 90s areawide. With
this quasi- zonal flow expected across the region, an unstable
airmass will begin to move into the region. This airmass, combined
with a couple of upper-level disturbances aloft and some northerly
moisture flow from the Tennessee Valley, will allow for rain/storm
chances across central/northern portions of our CWA around the
Friday night through Sunday evening/night timeframe. A few strong
storms with wind gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out. It is
possible that some of these storms could reach marginally severe
limits across northern portions of our forecast area including
portions of southeast Arkansas. The "Marginal" risk (1 out of 5) for
Friday night has been expanded slightly further south with the main
hazards being damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. In
addition, several areas along and north of Hwy 82 have been upgraded
to a "Slight" risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather. Damaging wind
gust up to 60-70 mph and hail up to golf ball size will be the main
concerns for areas highlighted in the "Slight" risk. A brief spin up
tornado cannot be ruled out. The threat for isolated severe t-storms
will continue into Saturday afternoon/evening with areas along and
north of the I-20 corridor highlighted under the "Marginal" risk by
the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall at times, with
rainfall totals ranging between 0.5-1 inches. Given that this system
will moving quite fast across our CWA, flash flooding concerns will
be low; however, some localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out.
There are still some discrepancies between model guidance regarding
the overall timing of this system. Trends will continue to be
monitored as we get closer.

Rain chances will begin to decrease Sunday night into the new work
week as a sfc ridge builds over the southeast CONUS. Quiet
conditions will continue across much of our forecast area with a
slight chance of scattered showers across portions of the Golden
Triangle heading into Monday afternoon. Quiet weather conditions
will occur across the area looking ahead into Tuesday morning as
future global guidance shows the ridge axis beginning to slowly push
east away from our forecast area giving us a small little break from
the rain.

A significant low pressure system over the Central Plains will push
east towards the Ohio River Valley region Tuesday afternoon/
evening. The associated cold front over southern Texas will track
east towards the southeast region late Tuesday evening. This
combined with southerly moisture flow from the Gulf will help
reintroduce scattered showers/t-storm chances across our entire CWA.
Storm chances will continue heading into Wednesday as the cold
pushes east across our forecast area. /CR/SW/.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail arewide until after 07Z Fri. After 07Z
Fri MVFR cigs wl develop and then lower to IFR by 10Z. IFR cigs wl
prevail until 14Z before improving to VFR 17Z. The gusty s-sw wind
to around 20kts this aftn wl subside by 01Z. A gusty s-sw wind
around 20kts wl develop by 15Z and continue Fri aftn. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  90  74  91 /   0   0  20  30
Meridian      70  91  72  91 /   0   0  10  30
Vicksburg     73  90  74  91 /   0   0  20  20
Hattiesburg   72  93  74  94 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       73  89  75  91 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    75  89  72  90 /   0   0  60  20
Greenwood     74  89  72  90 /   0   0  60  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SW/22